In other words, the actual data did not match the models’ predictions, which left climate modelers and environmentalists scrambling to explain the discrepancies.Īnd yet leftists and environmentalists want us to dramatically alter the economy and our way of life – e.g., through the Green New Deal – based on predictions that might, but probably won’t, be correct.Īnd speaking of predictions that aren’t correct, can we talk about those coronavirus pandemic models? A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper highlights just how influential – and wrong – some of the pandemic models have been.īoth U.S.

Nearly all climate models in the late 1990s and early 2000s greatly overestimated rising temperatures because they didn’t take into account what’s now known as the “warming hiatus” that lasted about 14 years – from about 1998 to 2012 – when global temperatures remained relatively flat. If you don’t believe the predictions of a climate model then you are denying the science, when what’s actually being questioned is many of the assumptions built into the model. If the assumptions are skewed, so will be a model’s predictions.Įnvironmentalists, the left and most of the media accuse skeptics of being “climate deniers.” But what many on the right are skeptical of isn’t actual scientific data, but some climate models’ predictions of temperatures and sea level rise 50 or 100 years in the future.Īnd yet the media regularly conflate the two. Box warned us: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”Īll models are built on a multitude of assumptions, and many of those assumptions increasingly reflect the ideological and political views of the modelers. Indeed, they are often wildly wrong.Īs the late statistician Prof. That might not be so bad if the models’ predictions were generally accurate. Those models drive many of our public policy debates and much of the major legislation passed by Congress. The vast majority of Americans are completely unaware of how much models that predict the future of the economy and the climate – and now disease – dominate our lives. Predictive models dominate our lives - not always for the betterīY MERRILL MATTHEWS, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 05/06/20 Guest “Yogi Berra’ism ” by David Middleton Source: First Coast Advisers

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